economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $10.8K in 24h volume, and $255K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$10.8K
Liquidity
$255K
This market asks whether Michelle Bolsonaro will be the person officially elected president of Brazil in 2026. It is tied to one of the country’s biggest political events, with the vote scheduled for October 4, 2026 and a possible second round folded into the same outcome. Because Brazil uses a runoff system if no candidate wins outright, the market is really about the final declared winner, not just the first round.
The question is simple: will Michelle Bolsonaro be the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election? Michelle Bolsonaro is the former first lady of Brazil and a politically significant public figure because of her association with former president Jair Bolsonaro and the broader Bolsonaro movement. The market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the election, including any second round, and if the result is still not known by June 30, 2027, it resolves to "Other."
This market reflects uncertainty about whether Michelle Bolsonaro will be the eventual official winner in a race that has not yet happened. Her name carries political weight, but an election outcome depends on nominations, campaign dynamics, coalition-building, and how Brazilian voters and institutions behave by election day. Readers are watching because the question is not just whether she remains visible in politics, but whether she can become the final certified winner under Brazil’s electoral rules.
Price can move if Michelle Bolsonaro becomes an official candidate, gains or loses party support, or is affected by legal, eligibility, or campaign developments that change her odds of reaching the runoff or winning it. Polling trends, endorsements, major coalition shifts, and the emergence of stronger rivals would also matter because this market is about the final certified result, not name recognition alone. Since the market includes a second round, developments that improve or weaken her prospects in a runoff can matter just as much as first-round momentum.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important things to verify are the official election result, whether a second round is held, and whether Michelle Bolsonaro is actually the candidate named in the final certified outcome. The market’s resolution source is the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), with consensus of credible reporting used unless there is ambiguity; if that happens, the official TSE result controls. Readers should also note the hard fallback date of June 30, 2027, after which the market resolves to "Other" if the winner still has not been officially determined.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $10.8K in 24h volume, and $255K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-4%
24h Vol
$1.6M
Liquidity
$561.5K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market
+1.5%
24h Vol
$1.8M
Liquidity
$534.4K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
--
24h Vol
$4.3M
Liquidity
$98.1K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.1K
Liquidity
$617.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$350.2K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market