
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $244 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$244
Liquidity
$3.7K
This market asks a simple but very specific question: will Moonshot’s model be in third place on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard when the June 30, 2026 check is made, using the site’s "Style Control On" ranking. Moonshot is the company behind the Kimi model line, so this is really a question about how that model stacks up against the rest of the field by the market’s cutoff. Because leaderboard positions can shift over time and the resolution rule depends on a single timestamp, it is worth watching the exact ranking rather than broader model hype.
The outcome is based on the company that owns the model sitting in the #3 slot on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s "Text Arena | Overall" tab with style control turned on. The market is set to check the leaderboard on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and whichever company’s model is listed third at that moment will determine the result. If two models are tied, the rules say they are broken by Arena score, including underlying unrounded values, and then by company name if needed.
This market is focused on a narrow but meaningful status question in frontier AI: which company has built a model good enough to sit near the top of a public benchmark leaderboard at a specific moment. That can matter because the Chatbot Arena ranking reflects head-to-head preference data rather than a single lab score, so small changes in model quality, sampling, or updates can shuffle the order. The uncertainty is not about whether Moonshot has an AI model at all, but whether it can hold or reach the exact third position under the stated ranking rules on the cutoff date.
Price can move if Moonshot releases a stronger model, if a competitor jumps ahead or falls behind on the same leaderboard, or if the Chatbot Arena site updates rankings enough to change the ordering near the check time. Changes in the leaderboard methodology, the presence of tied scores, or any late adjustment to the underlying Arena values can also matter because the market resolves by the site’s exact rank and tie-breaking rules. Since the market checks one specific leaderboard view, even a small ranking move among the top few models could change the outcome.
Related markets

-4%
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the exact leaderboard page specified in the rules: the "Text Arena | Overall" tab on lmarena.ai with style control on, checked at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The key thing to confirm is which company’s model is actually in third place at that moment, since ties are broken by the finer Arena score data and then alphabetically by company name if needed. The rules also say that if the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market waits until it returns, so the source’s availability at the deadline is part of the resolution process.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $244 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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