finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$186.4K
Liquidity
$150.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $961 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$961
Liquidity
$4.9K
This market is asking whether Moonshot will be the company behind the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. It is a narrow question about relative standing on a public benchmark, so even small changes in the leaderboard can matter. Because the result is taken from one specific source at one specific time, readers should pay close attention to the exact ranking rules and check time.
Moonshot refers to Moonshot AI, the company associated with the Kimi family of models. The market resolves by looking at the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard on lmarena.ai at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026, and then identifying which company owns the model in third place. The ranking is based first on the leaderboard’s displayed rank, then on Arena score if there is a tie, and finally on company-name order if the tie still is not broken.
The uncertainty here is not whether Moonshot has a strong model at some point in 2026, but whether it will hold exactly third place at the specific resolution moment. Benchmarks like Chatbot Arena move as new models are added, scores are updated, or rivals jump ahead, so the company in third can change without any single dramatic announcement. Readers care because this market reflects how close the top AI labs are to each other on a widely watched public leaderboard.
A new model release from Moonshot could improve its standing, but the same is true for competing companies such as Google, xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, or others that appear near the top of the leaderboard. Updates to the Arena leaderboard, changes in rank caused by new votes, or a tie that gets broken by exact score could all alter who ends up in third place. Even a model staying near the top but slipping from second to fourth would be enough to change the outcome.
Related markets
-3%
24h Vol
$186.4K
Liquidity
$150.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the "Text Arena | Overall" tab with style control off. Before the June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check, readers should verify which company is listed in third place and whether there are any ties that require the score or alphabetical tiebreakers described in the rules. The market description also says that if the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, it stays open until the source comes back, so the exact availability of the leaderboard matters as much as the ranking itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $961 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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