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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $706.5 in 24h volume, and $982.8K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$706.5
Liquidity
$982.8K
This market asks whether Nikki Haley will be the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee and accept that nomination. It is a long-horizon political question tied to the Republican nomination process, not the general election itself, so the key issue is what official party sources ultimately say about the nominee. Because the deadline runs all the way to November 2028, the market can stay sensitive to primary results, convention outcomes, and any formal changes to the party ticket.
The title names Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor, as the specific candidate in question. Under the rules, the market resolves to Yes only if she wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president; if she does not, it resolves to No. The description also says the resolution source is a consensus of official Republican Party sources, and that any later replacement of the nominee before Election Day does not change the outcome here.
There is genuine uncertainty because presidential nominations depend on a long sequence of primary contests, delegate math, convention decisions, and candidate choices that may not be settled for years. Nikki Haley is a recognizable national Republican figure, but whether she becomes the party’s 2028 standard-bearer will depend on future competition inside the party and whether she chooses to accept the nomination if offered. The market is therefore pricing a specific political path, not just Haley’s general prominence.
Statements from Haley about running or not running, endorsements from major Republican figures, early primary polling, and delegate-rich state results could all shift expectations. Official party rules, convention developments, or a contested nomination process would matter even more because the market keys off the formal Republican nomination and acceptance. Any credible indication that another candidate has locked up enough delegates, or that Haley is no longer seeking the nomination, would likely push the market toward No.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch official Republican Party announcements, convention results, and any formal acceptance speech or other party-recorded acceptance of the nomination. The most important detail in the rules is the wording: this is about Haley winning and accepting the Republican nomination, and the source of truth is a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Also note the special clause that a replacement nominee before Election Day does not change the resolution, so the final party nomination record—not later ballot mechanics—will control the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $706.5 in 24h volume, and $982.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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