economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?. The market currently shows a live probability of 72%, $15.9K in 24h volume, and $1.6K in liquidity.
Probability
72%
24h Volume
$15.9K
Liquidity
$1.6K
This market is watching whether the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 interest-rate decision will be unanimous. The focus is not on the rate level itself, but on whether any member of the Federal Open Market Committee breaks ranks when the Fed Funds Rate vote is recorded.
The key event is the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, with the policy statement expected at 2:00 PM Eastern on June 17 and the Chair’s press conference about 30 minutes later. Resolution depends on the number of dissenting votes in the committee’s decision on the Fed Funds Rate, using the official FOMC statement for that meeting as the main source. In plain terms, the market is asking whether the June decision will have zero dissents or at least one.
Fed meetings can produce dissent when officials disagree about inflation, labor-market conditions, or how restrictive policy should be. A unanimous vote usually suggests broad agreement inside the committee, while a dissent signals a more visible split over the next step for rates. Readers care because the vote tally can shape how markets interpret the Fed’s internal consensus, even if the policy rate itself stays unchanged.
Any sign before the meeting that Fed officials are divided on the appropriate rate level can make a dissent more likely, while a more settled policy outlook can support the chance of a unanimous vote. The Chair’s press conference, the wording of the statement, and the distribution of recent policy commentary from voting members are the most relevant cues for this specific market. The live market is also paying attention to the latest bid-ask range and recent price drift, which can shift quickly as the meeting approaches.
The current market price implies roughly a 72% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe most important source is the official FOMC statement and the Fed’s published calendar for the June 16-17 meeting; those documents determine the outcome unless a consensus of credible reporting is used to clarify the vote. Readers should verify the exact dissent count on the Fed Funds Rate decision, not broader policy language or other committee remarks. If the statement is delayed or the wording is ambiguous, the resolution note says the market may rely on credible reporting, so the vote tally itself is the key detail to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?. The market currently shows a live probability of 72%, $15.9K in 24h volume, and $1.6K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
71.5%
No
28.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 17, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on June 17, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 72%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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