world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+0.3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$701.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 90%, $56K in 24h volume, and $58.8K in liquidity.
Probability
90%
24h Volume
$56K
Liquidity
$58.8K
This market asks whether NVIDIA will be the world’s largest company by market value at the close of trading on June 30, 2026. It is a straightforward end-date check on a very visible corporate ranking, with NVIDIA compared against other mega-cap companies that could overtake it before the deadline.
The question is not about revenue, earnings, or who has the best business outlook; it is specifically about market capitalization, which is the company’s share price multiplied by its outstanding shares. The title names NVIDIA, one of the biggest U.S. chipmakers, and the resolution date is June 30, 2026, using the market close on that day. According to the description, the market resolves to whichever company is the largest in the world by market cap at that time, based on a consensus of credible reporting.
NVIDIA’s size has made it a benchmark for the broader technology and AI trade, but the top spot in global market cap can change as share prices move across the largest public companies. Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Alphabet, Amazon, and other large names can all matter depending on how their stock prices and share counts compare on the deadline. The market is pricing a specific dispute over whether NVIDIA can still be number one on that date, rather than simply whether it stays near the top.
The biggest drivers are movements in NVIDIA’s own share price and in the share prices of other giants that could challenge it for first place. Earnings results, guidance, major product or AI-chip announcements, changes in investor sentiment toward tech stocks, and broad market swings can all affect the ranking because even small changes at the top end can reshuffle market-cap leadership. A strong rally in a rival company, or a pullback in NVIDIA, would be especially relevant because the outcome depends on relative position, not an absolute valuation target.
Related markets
+0.3%
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$701.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 90% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the exact resolution rule: the market closes on June 30, 2026, and the winner is the company that is largest by market cap at that point. Because the source is a consensus of credible reporting, the key ambiguity is which public sources are used to confirm the final ranking if different data providers show slightly different figures. It is also important to watch for corporate actions such as buybacks, share issuance, stock splits, or major index moves that can change market cap calculations without changing the underlying business in a simple one-to-one way.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 90%, $56K in 24h volume, and $58.8K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
89.5%
No
10.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 90%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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