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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $85.6K in 24h volume, and $19K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$85.6K
Liquidity
$19K
This market is asking whether Perplexity AI will be the IPO with the largest market value in 2026, measured on the company’s first trading day after listing. The title names Perplexity AI, but the resolution rule is broader: it depends on which newly public company finishes 2026 with the highest U.S.-dollar market capitalization at its first close.
To resolve “Yes,” Perplexity AI would need to complete an IPO in 2026 and, on its first trading day, end up with the highest market cap among all companies that IPO during the year. The market cap calculation is explicit: outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing price, with any non-U.S. dollar listing converted using the Federal Reserve’s H.10 exchange rate or another credible source if needed. If two IPOs tie exactly, the listed name that comes first alphabetically wins the tie-break.
The uncertainty here is not just whether Perplexity AI will go public, but whether its debut valuation will outrun every other 2026 IPO. That depends on how much capital the company raises, how many shares are outstanding, and how the market prices the stock on day one, all of which can vary a lot for high-profile offerings. Readers care because the market is effectively comparing Perplexity AI’s possible listing size against the rest of the 2026 IPO class.
Announcements about Perplexity AI’s IPO timing, filing status, share count, or expected valuation can shift expectations quickly, since those details affect the size of the first-day market cap. Comparable news about other likely 2026 IPO candidates matters too, especially if another company is expected to price at a much larger valuation or list on a major exchange. The most important event for resolution, though, is not pre-IPO hype but the official first-day closing price and share count used to determine the final market cap.
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24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether Perplexity AI actually completes an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and then what its primary exchange listing page shows on the first trading day. Because resolution is based on the official listing page where available, the closing price, share count, and the exchange’s own reporting matter more than press coverage or private estimates. Readers should also watch for currency-conversion issues, since the rules specify U.S. dollar conversion for non-USD listings and a fallback source if the exchange page does not display the relevant figure.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $85.6K in 24h volume, and $19K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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