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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$540.9K
Liquidity
$259.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $1K in 24h volume, and $82.9 in liquidity.
Probability
35%
24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$82.9
This market asks whether Perplexity’s private valuation will reach at least $19 billion at any point before June 30, 2026, using the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price as the deciding reference. It is worth watching because Perplexity is a closely followed AI company, and any jump in its reported private-market valuation, financing terms, or a move toward a public listing could affect the outcome.
The event is tied to Perplexity, the AI search and answer company, and specifically to its private-market valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. The market resolves Yes if any NPM Price published from market creation through June 30, 2026 reaches or exceeds $19 billion; otherwise it resolves No. The rules also say that if Perplexity goes public through an IPO or direct listing, the official offering price and later public market capitalization can count too.
The uncertainty is not just whether Perplexity is growing, but whether the price investors assign to the company in private transactions or a public-market debut will clear a specific valuation threshold. That makes this a question about how much optimism the market has for one of the better-known AI startups, and whether that optimism is strong enough to push the company into the $19 billion range. The disagreement reflected here is between a view that Perplexity can keep attracting a higher valuation and a view that it may stay below that line before the deadline.
A new private funding round, a marked-up NPM price, or a valuation implied by a secondary transaction could all push the market toward Yes if they show Perplexity at or above $19 billion. Announcements connected to an IPO or direct listing would matter even more, because the rules allow the official price and later public market value to count. On the other side, if no published NPM data reaches the threshold, or if the company’s disclosed financing terms come in below it, the market is more likely to stay on No.
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24h Vol
$540.9K
Liquidity
$259.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 35% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the NPM Price releases, since those are the primary source of truth and are published only on trading days, with a one-day delay at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day. The deadline is June 30, 2026, but the rules allow the market to stay open briefly in early July if the relevant NPM data has not yet been published for all business dates. If Perplexity files for or completes an IPO or direct listing, the official offering price and any public-market valuation become part of the resolution logic, so those details should be checked carefully against the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $1K in 24h volume, and $82.9 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
35%
No
65%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 35%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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