finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$178.3K
Liquidity
$138.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 40%, $1.9K in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Probability
40%
24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$3.5K
This market asks whether Polymarket will reach 85% daily mindshare on Kaito’s Info Markets Arena by June 30, 2026. It is a narrow benchmark-style question, so the important issue is not Polymarket’s business performance in general, but whether Kaito’s published daily data ever prints at or above the threshold.
The event name refers to Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction market platform, and Kaito’s “mindshare” metric, which appears to track how much attention or discussion Polymarket is receiving relative to other projects. Resolution depends on the daily Polymarket percentage shown under Historical Data on Kaito’s Info Markets Arena page, and the market resolves Yes if that value reaches at least 85% at any point before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The rules say the value must be finalized based on Kaito’s next-day release, and the market uses the Kaito page as the sole source of truth.
The uncertainty here is whether Polymarket can dominate attention to that degree within Kaito’s measurement framework. Because the threshold is very high and the metric is defined by a third-party dashboard rather than by a company statement, readers may disagree about whether the number is realistically reachable before the deadline. The market is really pricing a question about sustained visibility, product relevance, and whether a specific attention metric ever spikes to an unusual level.
Any confirmed change in Kaito’s Historical Data for Polymarket is the direct driver, especially a daily print near the 85% threshold. Product launches, major announcements, regulatory developments, or widely discussed events involving Polymarket could affect attention and therefore the Kaito number, but only insofar as they show up in the published mindshare data. A strong move is most likely if Polymarket becomes the center of a broader industry conversation that Kaito records as a sharp daily jump.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$178.3K
Liquidity
$138.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 40% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the June 30, 2026 cutoff, the key thing to verify is the Kaito Info Markets Arena page itself, especially the finalized Historical Data values for Polymarket and whether the platform is still publishing daily results. The rules specify that a day only becomes final once the following day’s value is released, so late updates matter. If the source page is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns; if it never returns, the latest available Kaito data controls the outcome.】【。
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 40%, $1.9K in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released. The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 40%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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