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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $72.4K in 24h volume, and $444.8K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$72.4K
Liquidity
$444.8K
This market asks whether Rebecca Shepherd will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election, a local parliamentary contest in the United Kingdom. It is worth watching because by-elections can be shaped by candidate selection, turnout, and the national political mood at the moment the seat is contested.
Makerfield is a UK parliamentary constituency, and the market resolves to the person who officially wins its 2026 by-election. The description says the vote is expected on June 18, 2026, after the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons, and if the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market goes to "Other." For this page, the named candidate is Rebecca Shepherd, so the question is specifically whether she will emerge as the declared winner of that election.
There is uncertainty because by-elections are single-seat contests with a small number of candidates, and outcomes can change quickly based on local campaigning, party organization, and any late changes to the ballot or turnout. The market is pricing the gap between a straightforward win for Shepherd and the many ways she could fall short, including another party holding the seat or the result being delayed or disputed. Because the market relies on the eventual official winner, even a strong campaign does not settle the contract until the result is formally recorded.
Anything that clarifies the candidate lineup, campaign strength, or expected turnout can move this market. Official nomination notices, party endorsements, withdrawals, and local election statements matter most because they tell readers whether Rebecca Shepherd is actually on the ballot and how competitive the seat is likely to be. If the by-election date changes, if there is a delay in counting or certification, or if official results from Wigan Council point to a different winner, that would also shift the market.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the official result published by Wigan Council, since the rules say ambiguity is resolved solely by those election results. Readers should also verify the final polling date, whether the by-election goes ahead on the expected June 18, 2026 timetable, and whether Rebecca Shepherd is the actual declared winner rather than simply a candidate. If official results are not available by the end-of-year deadline, the market’s fallback rule sends it to "Other," so delays in certification are especially relevant.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $72.4K in 24h volume, and $444.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2.9%
No
97.2%
Polymarket has not provided a clear end date for this market yet.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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