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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $86K in 24h volume, and $12.8K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$86K
Liquidity
$12.8K
This market asks whether Revolut will be the largest 2026 IPO by market value on its first trading day. Revolut matters here because it is one of the most closely watched private fintech companies, and an IPO would make its opening valuation comparable with any other company that lists in 2026.
The question is not simply whether Revolut goes public, but whether it finishes 2026 with the highest U.S.-dollar market capitalization among all companies that complete an IPO during the year. The market will use the official closing share price on the first trading day and multiply it by the number of outstanding shares, then compare that figure with every other 2026 IPO. If there is a tie, the listed company name that comes first alphabetically wins under the market rules.
There is real uncertainty around both Revolut’s timing and the size of any eventual listing, especially because 2026 could feature several large public offerings from different sectors and countries. Revolut has long been discussed as a potential major debut, but the market is really pricing the gap between that possibility and the chance that another company lists bigger. The current order book signal also suggests the market sees this as a long-shot outcome, which is consistent with the very low Yes price.
The price would move most if Revolut’s IPO plans become clearer, especially if the company files publicly, announces an exchange, or gives guidance that points to a very large valuation at listing. It could also move if another 2026 IPO candidate appears likely to come public with a larger expected capitalization, since this market is a relative comparison rather than a single-company event. Changes in the expected number of shares, the pricing range, or the final closing price on day one would all matter because the rule uses the first-day official close.
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24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for whether Revolut actually completes an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, because a company can only resolve Yes if it lists within that window. The key source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page on the first trading day, since that is where the market says it will check the closing price and any reported market cap; if the figure is missing, another reliable source may be used. It is also important to verify the currency conversion rule for non-U.S.-listed companies, and to note the alphabetical tiebreak if two IPOs end up with exactly the same market capitalization.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $86K in 24h volume, and $12.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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