politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $74.7K in 24h volume, and $205K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$74.7K
Liquidity
$205K
This market asks whether Reza Pahlavi will physically enter the territory of Iran before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Reza Pahlavi is a prominent Iranian opposition figure and the son of Iran’s last shah, so any travel to Iran would be politically significant and easy to miss if it were only an air or sea transit. Because the resolution depends on a concrete crossing into Iranian land, the event is about verified movement, not statements of intent.
The key question is simple: does Reza Pahlavi set foot inside Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? The market rules say a qualifying “visit” means physically entering Iranian terrestrial territory; entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory does not count. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, so the relevant issue is whether there is clear public evidence that he was actually in Iran.
This market exists because Reza Pahlavi is a politically symbolic figure, and a return to Iran would be a major development with diplomatic, security, and opposition-politics implications. There is uncertainty not just about whether such a trip would happen, but whether it could happen openly, safely, and in a way that can be publicly confirmed. The market is pricing disagreement over both the political feasibility of a return and the chance of a verifiable report before the deadline.
Price could move if credible reporting, official statements, public appearances, or travel-related evidence suggests Pahlavi is planning to enter Iran or has already done so. It could also shift if there are developments that make an actual return more or less plausible, such as changes in Iran’s political climate, security conditions, or his own public travel plans. Because the rules require physical entry into Iranian territory, reports about speeches, flights, overflights, or nearby-border activity would matter only if they clearly support or rule out an actual crossing.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should watch for the exact deadline, because the market ends at June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET under the description even though the listed end date is shown in UTC. The source of truth is a consensus of credible reporting, so the important question is whether public coverage clearly confirms terrestrial entry into Iran, not just a rumor or a symbolic statement. Ambiguity would arise if reports mention travel plans, transit through neighboring countries, or passage through airspace without proof that he entered Iranian land.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $74.7K in 24h volume, and $205K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
1.4%
No
98.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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