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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $7.4K in 24h volume, and $19.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$19.2K
This market is asking whether SpaceX will complete its first public share sale on June 30, 2026 or any later date. It matters because an IPO would be a major change for one of the most closely watched private companies in the world, and the timing depends on corporate, regulatory, and exchange-listing steps that are not always publicly scheduled far in advance.
The event in question is SpaceX’s initial public offering, with the cutoff set by Eastern Time. Under the market rules, an IPO means the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange, and the market resolves by the date that happens. The primary source is the official listing page of the relevant exchange, although credible reporting can be used if needed.
SpaceX is a prominent private company, but private companies can stay private for long periods or move toward listing on a timetable that is hard to pin down. That leaves genuine uncertainty around whether any public offering will happen by the end of June 2026 or only later, which is exactly the timing question this market captures. The current trading also shows the market leaning heavily toward a later or no-IPO outcome, with the Yes side priced very low.
The biggest price moves would come from official exchange listing notices, a confirmed IPO filing, or company statements that make the timing clearer. Signals that SpaceX is preparing underwriters, setting a registration timeline, or naming an exchange would likely push expectations toward an earlier resolution. By contrast, silence, delays, or any indication that the company is not ready to list by the deadline would reinforce the later-date outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official exchange listing page first, because that is the stated primary resolution source. The key ambiguity is timing: the market resolves on the date the IPO launches in Eastern Time, so announcements, filings, and the exact listing day all matter. If the exchange page is unclear, the fallback is credible reporting, but the page’s exact rules should be checked carefully for what counts as the first public sale and what qualifies as a recognized stock exchange.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $7.4K in 24h volume, and $19.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 29, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that SpaceX launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO). For the purposes of this market, an IPO refers to the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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