culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
8%
-43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$238.1K
Liquidity
$14.7K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $493.7 in 24h volume, and $710.4 in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$493.7
Liquidity
$710.4
This market asks whether "SWIM - BTS" will finish as the most-streamed song on Spotify in the U.S. for the chart week labeled June 12. Because Spotify’s weekly charts reflect actual listening behavior over a fixed window, the page is watching whether this BTS track can outpace every other song in the U.S. during that period.
The outcome here is based on Spotify’s official U.S. weekly top songs chart for the week labeled June 12, not on global rankings or outside estimates. The market resolves to Yes only if Spotify’s "Charts" section shows "SWIM - BTS" as the #1 song in the U.S. for that week; otherwise it resolves No. If Spotify has not released that chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other" under the market rules.
There is uncertainty because a song’s weekly rank depends on listening totals across millions of streams, and the top spot can shift quickly from week to week. BTS is a major global act, so a title associated with the group can attract attention, but the question is still narrowly about one track and one U.S. Spotify chart week. Traders are effectively weighing whether this specific song can beat every other song on the platform during the June 12 tracking period.
Anything that affects streaming performance during the chart window can matter, especially playlist placement, fan-driven streaming campaigns, and whether the song has broad listener momentum in the U.S. A strong release week, viral lift, or heavy presence in Spotify’s own editorial playlists could make a #1 finish more plausible, while stronger competing releases would work against it. The price will also react to whether Spotify’s Friday chart release confirms or rules out the song’s position for that week.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-43%
24h Vol
$238.1K
Liquidity
$14.7K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is Spotify’s official U.S. weekly Top Songs chart under the "Charts" heading on open.spotify.com. Readers should check the exact chart week label, since the market resolves specifically for the week labeled June 12 and not a different date range. The other important deadline is June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET: if Spotify has not posted the relevant chart by then, the market defaults to "Other," which is a separate resolution path from the song actually ranking first.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $493.7 in 24h volume, and $710.4 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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