economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10.7K in 24h volume, and $482K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$10.7K
Liquidity
$482K
This market asks whether Tarcisio de Freitas will win Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. The race matters because Brazil elects its president in a two-round system, so the winner may not be known on election day if no candidate clears an outright majority in the first round.
Tarcisio de Freitas is the named candidate in this market, and the event is the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026. The question is simply whether he will emerge as the official winner of that election, including any second-round runoff that may be required under Brazil’s voting rules. If the result is still unresolved by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
The uncertainty here is not just whether Tarcisio de Freitas runs, but whether he can assemble enough support across Brazil’s national electorate to win a presidential contest that can extend into a runoff. Presidential elections in Brazil often hinge on coalition-building, party alliances, and how second-round voters realign after the first vote, which makes this a live and politically meaningful question. Readers following this market are effectively watching whether one specific politician can translate recognition and support into an official victory.
Any official campaign announcement, party endorsement, or change in ballot access involving Tarcisio de Freitas can affect how people judge his chances. Public polling, debate performance, coalition negotiations, and signals from major Brazilian parties are also likely to matter because they can change expectations about both the first round and a possible runoff. Later in the cycle, confirmed first-round results, runoff pairings, or withdrawals by other major contenders would be especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth for this market is the official election result reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), with credible reporting used only if the outcome is clear and consistent. Because the market explicitly includes any second round, readers should check whether the election is decided on October 4, 2026 or only after a runoff. It is also worth watching the fallback date: if there is still no official result by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other," so any prolonged legal dispute or delay should be measured against that deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10.7K in 24h volume, and $482K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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