culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
10%
-48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$271.1K
Liquidity
$8.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $164 in 24h volume, and $477.6 in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$164
Liquidity
$477.6
This market asks whether Netflix’s movie titled "The Crash" will land at No. 2 on the U.S. weekly movie chart. It is tied to a specific public update from Netflix, so the key question is not just whether the film is popular, but whether its U.S. view count ends up exactly second for the week.
Resolution depends on Netflix’s Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com, expected Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. The ranking is based on total U.S. views for movies during the prior Monday-to-Sunday tracking week, and this market resolves Yes only if "The Crash" is listed as the #2 U.S. Netflix movie in that update. If Netflix does not post the update by June 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
The uncertainty here is about where one specific title will place in Netflix’s weekly ranking, not simply whether it will appear on the chart. A movie can have a strong launch and still miss second place if another title has more viewing, so the market is really pricing that narrow cutoff between No. 2 and every other position.
Anything that changes expectations for Netflix’s weekly movie chart can move this market, especially announcements or visibility around "The Crash" itself. If Netflix’s Top 10 update is delayed, or if the movie appears to be competing with another high-profile release for the same weekly window, that would matter because the market resolves on the exact ranked position in the June 9 chart.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-48%
24h Vol
$271.1K
Liquidity
$8.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe most important source of truth is Netflix’s own Top 10 page at top10.netflix.com, since the market resolves from that posted ranking rather than from third-party estimates. Readers should check that the update actually appears on June 9 and that the U.S. movie chart is the one being used, because the market is specifically about the #2 position in the U.S. weekly ranking. If the page is missing by the stated backup deadline, the outcome falls to "Other," which makes the posting date itself part of the resolution risk.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $164 in 24h volume, and $477.6 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
1.8%
No
98.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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