culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
9%
-46.5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$259.3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Spread
2%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $178.1 in 24h volume, and $633.1 in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$178.1
Liquidity
$633.1
This market asks whether Olivia Rodrigo’s song "The Cure" will finish as Spotify’s most-streamed song globally for the week labeled June 12. It is a narrow, date-specific music chart question, so the main thing to watch is which track Spotify places at #1 in its official weekly Charts list.
The contract resolves to "Yes" if Spotify’s official global weekly chart for the week labeled June 12 names "The Cure" by Olivia Rodrigo as the most-streamed song. The title is phrased as "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo," which refers to that specific track and artist rather than a general artist ranking. If Spotify has not published the relevant chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other" under the stated rules.
Spotify’s weekly global song chart can shift quickly because it reflects listening across a large audience over a short window. A single high-profile release, a viral moment, or sustained catalog streaming can push one song to the top, while a crowded release week can keep it from reaching #1. Readers are really watching whether Olivia Rodrigo’s track has enough global streaming momentum in that exact chart week to outrun every other song on the platform.
The biggest price moves would come from anything that changes the likely Spotify chart leader for the June 12 week: a major new release from another huge artist, unusually strong streaming growth for Olivia Rodrigo’s track, or evidence that "The Cure" is holding a top position on Spotify’s charts. Because the market resolves on Spotify’s official global #1 song, late-week listening patterns matter, especially if competing tracks are close in streams. Any clarification from Spotify’s Charts page about the weekly ranking would be the decisive signal.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-46.5%
24h Vol
$259.3K
Liquidity
$12.7K
Spread
2%
6/6/2026
View marketBefore resolution, check Spotify’s official Charts section on open.spotify.com, since that is the named source of truth here. The important details are the chart week labeled June 12, the global scope of the ranking, and the June 13, 2026 11:59 PM ET fallback deadline if Spotify does not publish in time. One ambiguity to watch is that the title compresses the song and artist into a single phrase, so the relevant outcome is specifically "The Cure" by Olivia Rodrigo, not any other song or artist association.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $178.1 in 24h volume, and $633.1 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
3.5%
No
96.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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