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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$54.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $339,000 and $342,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $40 in 24h volume, and $283.6 in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$283.6
This market asks whether Chicago’s median home value will land in a very tight band on June 30, 2026. Because the range is only $3,000 wide, even a modest move in the underlying index can decide the outcome, so the exact source and calculation method matter a lot.
The contract resolves on the median home value for all property types in Chicago on June 30, 2026. The market does not use a brokerage estimate or a home-price headline; it uses Parcl Labs’ Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845), then multiplies the published price-per-square-foot figure by 1,500 square feet, which the market rules say is Chicago’s median home size. If the reported value lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins, and if June 30 data is not published by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market falls back to the most recently published data.
Chicago home values can shift enough from month to month that a narrow band like $339,000 to $342,000 is genuinely uncertain, especially when the settlement depends on a specific index rather than a broad citywide average. Readers should care about the exact rule set because small changes in the underlying Parcl price-per-square-foot figure can push the final calculated value in or out of the target range. The market is effectively pricing whether the June 30 Parcl reading, after the 1,500-square-foot conversion, will sit inside that specific bracket.
The biggest driver is the June 30 Parcl Labs Chicago sales price index release itself, since that is the official settlement input. Any upward or downward move in the index’s price-per-square-foot figure can change the implied home value after multiplication by 1,500, which is why even a small revision or monthly change can matter here. The fallback rule also matters: if the June 30 release is delayed past July 10, the contract will use the latest published data available at that time, which could change the settlement reference point.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$54.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, check the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index entry for Chicago, IL with Parcl_ID 2899845 and confirm the published price-per-square-foot value for June 30, 2026. The key thing to verify is that the market’s calculation uses the official Parcl figure times 1,500 square feet, not another Chicago housing metric or a separate estimate. Also watch the timing rule closely: if June 30 data is not posted by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves from the most recently published data, and the “between two brackets” rule favors the higher bracket when a value lands exactly on a boundary.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $339,000 and $342,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $40 in 24h volume, and $283.6 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
17%
No
83%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/46)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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