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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$54K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $351,000 and $354,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $40 in 24h volume, and $394.7 in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$394.7
This market asks whether Chicago’s median home value will land in a fairly tight band on June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome is pinned to an official housing data series, and the answer depends on how a published price index translates into a dollar home-value estimate for the city.
The question is specifically whether the median home value in Chicago will be between $351,000 and $354,000 on June 30, 2026. Resolution uses Parcl Labs’ Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845), and the market converts that index into a home value by multiplying the published price-per-square-foot figure by 1,500 square feet, which the market says is Chicago’s median home size. If the computed value lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins; if June 30 data is not published by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves using the most recently published data instead.
Chicago housing values can move within a narrow range from month to month, so there is genuine uncertainty about whether the city will finish inside this specific band. Readers may care because the market is tied to a real housing benchmark rather than a vague sentiment measure, and the yes/no outcome depends on a precise cutoff that can easily be crossed by small changes in the index. The disagreement being priced is essentially whether the June 30 Parcl reading, after conversion to a home-value estimate, will sit inside that $351,000 to $354,000 window.
The main thing that can move this market is the June 30 Parcl Labs release for Chicago and any updated price-per-square-foot reading it contains. Because the settlement value is calculated from that index, even a modest change in the published figure can push the implied median home value above or below the target range. Attention also falls on the fallback rule: if the June 30 data is delayed, the most recent prior publication becomes the settlement reference, which can matter if the newer number would have landed differently.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$54K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check the exact Parcl Labs Sales Price Index release for Chicago, IL and confirm the published price-per-square-foot value used in the calculation. The key details are the June 30, 2026 publication date, the 1,500-square-foot conversion, the bracket rules at the boundaries, and the fallback to the latest available data if June 30 is not posted by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The main ambiguity risk is not the headline housing question itself, but whether the official release appears on time and whether the converted value sits exactly on a bracket edge.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Chicago be between $351,000 and $354,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $40 in 24h volume, and $394.7 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
7%
No
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/46)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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