
-48.5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$276.2K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,237,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $50 in 24h volume, and $324.1 in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$50
Liquidity
$324.1
This market asks whether Miami’s median home value will clear $1,237,000 by June 30, 2026, based on a specific published price series rather than a broad guess about local housing. Because Miami is a high-profile housing market with large swings in luxury and condo pricing, even a small change in the underlying index can matter here. The outcome will hinge on one official Parcl Labs data release, so the exact measurement method is more important than headlines about the city’s real estate scene.
The question is about the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on June 30, 2026. Resolution uses the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City, and the market converts that published price-per-square-foot figure into a home value by multiplying it by 2,100, which the rules say is the median square footage in Miami. If the reported value lands exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket, and if June 30 data is not released by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the most recently published data is used instead.
There is real uncertainty because the market depends on a single official index reading, not a consensus estimate of Miami housing prices. Miami’s mix of luxury properties, condos, and broader metro housing trends can push the median in different directions, and the $1,237,000 threshold is close enough to make the exact June figure meaningful. The live market signal shows traders currently leaning to No, but the question remains whether the published index will come in above or below that cutoff.
The main price mover is any new information that changes expectations for the Parcl Labs June 30 Miami City index, especially signs that the price-per-square-foot reading is tracking above or below the level implied by $1,237,000 divided by 2,100. Because the market resolves on a specific release date, confirmation of the Parcl publication schedule, the final index print, or any note about delayed data can also affect pricing. Changes in the broader Miami housing backdrop matter only insofar as they influence expectations for that official index value.
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-48.5%
24h Vol
$276.2K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index release for Miami City on June 30, 2026, since that is the source of truth named in the rules. The key check is not a news report about home prices, but the exact published price-per-square-foot figure and how it converts into the settlement value using the 2,100-square-foot multiplier. If the June 30 data is missing, the fallback rule says the most recently published data will be used after July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so the resolution date could effectively shift if the scheduled release does not appear on time.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,237,000 on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $50 in 24h volume, and $324.1 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
7%
No
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/39)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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