
-3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$161.1K
Liquidity
$139.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.2K in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$6.6K
This market asks whether Google will make its next Gemini Pro model publicly available on June 13, 2026, in Eastern Time. The date matters because Google’s model launches often come in named product releases, and the rule here is about the first day a qualifying Pro version is actually accessible to the general public.
The event is tied to Google’s Gemini line, but only models labeled as “Pro” count here. A release such as gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or another Pro-branded successor would qualify if it is publicly accessible on June 13, 2026 ET; Flash, Flash-Lite, and other non-Pro variants would not. The market also allows a GA promotion of an existing Preview model if Google makes it publicly available under a Pro label.
The uncertainty is not just whether Google will announce something, but whether the company will ship a qualifying Pro model on that exact calendar date and make it accessible to ordinary users. Product launches can be teased, delayed, or limited to private testing, so readers are weighing the difference between a public release, a preview, and a closed beta. That creates disagreement over both timing and whether any given Gemini announcement meets the market’s definition.
A clear official Google announcement for a Gemini Pro launch on June 13 would be the strongest event-specific signal. So would a public product page, docs update, or sign-up flow showing that a Pro model is available to the general public on that date. By contrast, an announcement for Flash or Flash-Lite, a private beta, or a Pro model that is only listed but not actually accessible would push against a Yes outcome under these rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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-3%
24h Vol
$161.1K
Liquidity
$139.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe key source of truth is Google’s official information, with credible reporting used only as backup. Readers should check the exact calendar date in Eastern Time, the model label, and whether access is genuinely public rather than closed or invite-only. The main ambiguity risk is a naming mismatch: a page may mention a Pro version, but if it is only placeholder text, a non-public preview, or a mislabeled entry that is not actually usable by the public, it should not count here.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.2K in 24h volume, and $6.6K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
1.1%
No
98.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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