
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$178.4K
Liquidity
$165.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $3.4 in 24h volume, and $3.4K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$3.4
Liquidity
$3.4K
This market asks whether Google will make the next Gemini Pro model publicly available by June 30, 2026. It matters because Gemini Pro is Google’s main higher-capability Gemini tier, so a release can signal where the company is in its product cycle and how quickly it is pushing major model updates.
The question is specifically about the next Google Gemini model that carries the Pro label, with June 30, 2026 as the cutoff date in Eastern Time. A new model name such as gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview could count if it is publicly accessible and clearly released by Google under the market rules. Models labeled Flash, Flash-Lite, or any non-Pro variant do not qualify, and a private beta or closed access launch would not be enough.
There is uncertainty around both timing and definition: Google may release a Pro model, but the market only resolves “Yes” if it is accessible to the general public and fits the Pro-label criteria. That leaves room for disagreement about whether a launch is a true public release, a preview, a GA upgrade of an existing preview model, or just a naming change on a website. Readers care because Google’s Gemini releases are closely watched product announcements, and the exact form of the launch determines whether this market resolves at all.
The biggest price moves would come from an official Google announcement naming a new Gemini Pro model and stating that it is available to the public, or from a public product page showing a qualifying Pro model with real access. A release labeled as GA for a previously previewed Pro model may also matter under the rules, while a launch limited to closed testing would push the market toward “No.” Confusing signals, such as a model name appearing on a website without actual public access, could matter less if they do not meet the market’s access requirement.
Related markets

-4%
24h Vol
$178.4K
Liquidity
$165.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact public release status on or before June 30, 2026, using Google’s own official information first. Check whether the model is labeled Pro, whether it is actually available to the general public, and whether access is open beta, open rolling waitlist, or a fully public rollout rather than a private beta. The market’s wording also makes the date and time zone important: resolution is based on the calendar date in ET, so announcements near midnight should be read carefully against that cutoff.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $3.4 in 24h volume, and $3.4K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
13%
No
87%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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