Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $69.5K in 24h volume, and $99.4K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.