economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $1.7K in 24h volume, and $11.6K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$11.6K
This market asks whether the June 16-17, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will produce exactly three dissents on the Fed funds rate decision. That makes it a narrow read on how divided the Fed is at this meeting, not just on whether the committee changes rates. Because dissent counts are published in the official statement, the answer should be clear once the meeting concludes.
The event is the FOMC’s June 2026 policy meeting, with the decision scheduled for 2:00 PM Eastern on June 17 and the Chair’s press conference following around 2:30 PM ET. The question is whether three voting members will record dissents on the interest-rate decision, which means the market resolves by the number of dissenting votes tied specifically to the Fed Funds Rate vote. The resolution source is the FOMC statement for that meeting, using the official Federal Reserve calendar, and the market may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if needed.
FOMC meetings sometimes produce unanimous decisions, but dissent counts can rise when committee members disagree about inflation, growth, labor conditions, or the appropriate pace of policy changes. A “three dissent” outcome is notable because it signals a larger-than-usual split inside the central bank, which can matter to economists, bond traders, and anyone watching the Fed’s policy path. This market is pricing a fairly specific institutional outcome rather than the rate move itself, which is why the exact vote total matters.
The biggest drivers will be the June statement itself, the vote count attached to it, and any clues from the Chair’s press conference about how unified or divided the committee is. If the Fed surprises with a larger policy shift than expected, or if the statement language changes in a way that appears contentious, traders may reassess the chance of exactly three dissents. By contrast, a routine decision with no visible internal split would push the market away from this outcome. The quoted market is currently skewed toward “No,” so anything that makes the meeting look more contentious could move it.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch the official FOMC statement first, since that is the primary source of truth for the vote tally and the dissents. If the statement is unclear, the press conference, meeting materials, and credible reporting can help confirm whether the dissents were on the Fed funds rate decision specifically, since that detail controls resolution. The main ambiguity to verify is whether the market counts only dissents on the rate vote and not on other parts of the meeting, and whether the final published record matches the immediate post-meeting statement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $1.7K in 24h volume, and $11.6K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
3.9%
No
96.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 17, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on June 17, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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