culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
6%
-41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$224.1K
Liquidity
$13.4K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $9 in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$9
Liquidity
$19.4K
This market asks whether Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will post the biggest 3-day domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026. It is worth watching because the answer will be determined by box office rankings across the whole year, so one highly anticipated release can be overtaken if another film opens even bigger.
The question is not whether Toy Story 5 opens well in an absolute sense, but whether its final Friday-Saturday-Sunday domestic opening weekend is the top figure among all 2026 movies. Resolution will use the “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on The Numbers for the relevant movie in the 2026 year list, and only final numbers count, not studio estimates. If another film finishes with a larger final 3-day opening weekend, or wins a tie by alphabetical order under the market rules, this market resolves “No.”
Toy Story is one of Pixar’s most recognizable brands, and franchise installments often attract heavy opening-weekend attention because audiences show up early before reviews, word of mouth, or later competition can change the picture. Even so, the market is about uncertainty: another sequel, event movie, or broad-audience release in 2026 could still outgross it over the first three days, especially if release dates line up favorably or expectations shift. The market is pricing that specific uncertainty about whether Toy Story 5 can lead the entire domestic opening-weekend field for the year.
Price can move when the release calendar becomes clearer, especially if another major 2026 title looks likely to open in the same period or if a competing franchise film is announced or assigned a strong date. It can also move if Toy Story 5 gets a finalized release window that suggests a crowded box office corridor, or if box office tracking around comparable family sequels points to unusually strong or weak demand. Because the rule depends on the final 3-day domestic opening weekend, any change in the expected opening pattern, including a 4-day launch that still has to be judged on Friday through Sunday, matters to the market.
Related markets
-41%
24h Vol
$224.1K
Liquidity
$13.4K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the final opening-weekend figure on The Numbers for Toy Story 5 and compare it against every other 2026 movie once those numbers are final, not estimated. The key detail is the source of truth: the market uses The Numbers’ “Weekend Box Office Performance” table and the 3-day weekend only, regardless of whether a film had a longer holiday opening. The deadline mentioned in the rules is January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET for a fallback resolution if final data is still missing, so any ambiguity will hinge on whether the site has published final weekend data by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $9 in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
4.4%
No
95.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$49.8K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View market-0.5%
24h Vol
$82.3K
Liquidity
$45.7K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$94.9K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-32.6%
24h Vol
$38.4K
Liquidity
$4.2K
Spread
8%
6/8/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$21.8K
Liquidity
$134.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market