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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $2.4K in 24h volume, and $8.7K in liquidity.
Probability
9%
24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$8.7K
This market is asking a narrow but very specific question: if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person again before the end of 2026, will that next meeting take place in China? The answer depends on the location of the first qualifying encounter between the two men after the market opened, not on whether they merely appear at the same event.
The title focuses on Trump and Putin, two figures whose meetings tend to carry outsized diplomatic meaning because both are central to U.S.-Russia relations and any broader great-power diplomacy. For this market to resolve “Yes,” the next meeting between them must happen in China sometime between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with both present and interacting in person. If they do not have a qualifying meeting during that window, or if their next meeting happens somewhere other than China, the market resolves to “No meeting by December 31” or effectively not to the China outcome.
The uncertainty here is not just whether Trump and Putin might meet, but where the next such encounter would happen, which can be shaped by summit schedules, state visits, multilateral gatherings, and shifting diplomatic priorities. China matters because it is a plausible venue for high-level international meetings, yet the market is clearly separating that possibility from other locations and from the possibility of no meeting at all. Readers are therefore watching both the chance of renewed contact and the venue chosen if it happens.
Any official announcement of a bilateral or summit-style meeting involving Trump and Putin would be the biggest price mover, especially if China is identified or strongly implied as the host. Reporting that the two are expected at the same event can also matter, but under these rules mere proximity is not enough; there must be a clear in-person interaction such as conversation, a handshake, or another direct exchange. By contrast, confirmed plans for them to meet in another country, or signs that no such meeting is likely before the deadline, would push this market away from a China resolution.
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24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 9% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key items to verify are the meeting location, whether both Trump and Putin were actually present, and whether there was direct interaction that meets the market’s definition. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, so readers should look for consistent confirmation rather than a single ambiguous note or a photo of the two men in the same room. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and if no qualifying meeting occurs by then, the market resolves to the no-meeting outcome rather than to China.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $2.4K in 24h volume, and $8.7K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
9%
No
91%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 9%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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