Will Trump and Putin not meet?

What this market is about

According to the rules, the market resolves based on whether Trump and Putin meet at any time from market creation through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A meeting counts only if both are present and directly interact in person, such as through conversation, a handshake, or another clear personal exchange; simply being near each other or in the same venue is not enough. If no qualifying meeting happens in that window, the market resolves to “No meeting by December 31.”

Why the market exists

Trump and Putin are major political figures whose travel plans, diplomatic events, and summit schedules can change quickly, which creates uncertainty around whether they will cross paths. The market is really pricing the odds of an actual face-to-face interaction, not just broad geopolitical contact between the United States and Russia. That distinction matters because a planned summit, a multilateral gathering, or an unexpected side meeting could settle the market even if the broader relationship remains unchanged.

What can move the price

The biggest price moves would come from official announcements of a summit, bilateral talks, or attendance at the same international event where direct contact is plausible. Reports about travel plans, venue changes, or cancellations can also matter if they make a face-to-face encounter more or less likely before the deadline. Because the rules require personal interaction, headlines that only place both leaders in the same country or building would not be enough on their own.

How to read the current probability