
-0.1%
Will Luiz InΓ‘cio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
24h Vol
$2.8M
Liquidity
$64.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Trump say "Moon" during Tribute to America Rally?. The market currently shows a live probability of 57%, $2K in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Probability
57%
24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$2K
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Trump say "Moon" during Tribute to America Rally?. The market currently shows a live probability of 57%, $2K in 24h volume, and $2K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the "Tribute to America" Independence Day celebration in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET. (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116817366986980714). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the "Tribute to America" Independence Day address scheduled for July 4, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$2.8M
Liquidity
$64.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketProbability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 57%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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