Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $364 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.

Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.