politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
1%
--
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
24h Vol
$97.2K
Liquidity
$369.9K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $121.1K in 24h volume, and $131.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$121.1K
Liquidity
$131.6K
This market asks whether the United States will formally start leaving NATO before the June 30, 2026 deadline. It is focused on official diplomatic action, not rhetoric: a real withdrawal notice or equivalent formal initiation is what matters here.
The question is whether the U.S. will either initiate a withdrawal from NATO or submit a formal notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the long-running defense alliance that links the United States with European and Canadian allies, so any U.S. move to exit would be a major treaty-level shift. The market rules also say that leaving NATO’s integrated military command structure alone is not enough; the trigger has to be an official step toward withdrawal.
This market exists because there is a sharp difference between political talk about NATO and the much narrower legal question of whether the U.S. would actually take the formal steps required to leave. Readers may care because a U.S. withdrawal would affect alliance commitments, deterrence, and how Europe and North America coordinate security policy. The disagreement the market is pricing is less about whether NATO is controversial in politics and more about whether any administration would go as far as a formal denunciation before the deadline.
The price would move if there were a public U.S. government statement, signed notice, or other official act that clearly begins withdrawal under the treaty. A formal NATO communication, an executive action that expressly directs withdrawal, or credible reporting tied to official documents could also matter if it meets the market’s resolution standard. By contrast, speeches criticizing NATO, election-season promises, funding disputes, or a partial military reorganization would usually not be enough unless they included the specific formal withdrawal step described in the rules.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$97.2K
Liquidity
$369.9K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether there is an official notice of denunciation or an equally clear formal initiation of withdrawal from the U.S. government before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Because the market says consensus credible reporting may be used, readers should watch for official U.S. and NATO statements, treaty paperwork, or authoritative reporting that directly references Article 13 or a formal withdrawal notice. If there is no such document or announcement, then even highly public criticism of NATO would not satisfy the market’s condition, and the distinction between a full withdrawal and simply leaving the integrated command structure will be important.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $121.1K in 24h volume, and $131.6K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+1.3%
24h Vol
$132.2K
Liquidity
$191K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$349.4K
Liquidity
$648.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$111.7K
Liquidity
$55.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.4%
24h Vol
$238.8K
Liquidity
$63.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+12%
24h Vol
$210.6K
Liquidity
$2.4M
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market