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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $14.4K in 24h volume, and $93.8K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$14.4K
Liquidity
$93.8K
This market asks whether Yariv Levin will be the next person officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the next parliamentary election. Levin is a senior Israeli political figure and longtime Likud politician, so the question is really about whether he can move from a prominent party role into the country’s top executive office. The market stays open through the post-election government formation process, which matters in Israel because the winning bloc does not become government until a prime minister is formally appointed and sworn in.
The event being tracked is the identity of the next Israeli prime minister after the 2026 legislative election, currently scheduled for October 27, 2026. For this market to resolve “Yes,” Yariv Levin must be the individual who is officially appointed and then sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after that election, or after an early election if one is called before then. A caretaker or interim prime minister does not count, and if no qualifying prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other” under the written rules.
There is uncertainty because Israeli elections do not automatically determine the next prime minister, and coalition bargaining often matters as much as the vote count itself. Levin is a recognizable figure in Israeli politics, but becoming prime minister would require him to emerge as the final choice of the governing process, not just to be a party leader or cabinet minister. The market is pricing the chance that he personally ends up in that sworn-in role rather than another candidate.
Statements from Likud, coalition negotiations, leadership contests inside the governing bloc, or official signals about who would be nominated to form a government could all shift this market. An early election call would also matter, because the market would then resolve off the next election instead of waiting for the scheduled October 2026 vote. Any official appointment of a different person as prime minister, or signs that Levin is not the leading candidate for the post, would generally push the price lower.
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24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the Government of Israel, with credible reporting used only as a backup if official confirmation is not immediately clear. Readers should watch for the formal appointment and swearing-in, not just election results, coalition deals, or caretaker arrangements. The main ambiguity to check is whether an early election is called, because that would change the election that governs resolution, and whether the person in question is actually sworn in before the December 31, 2027 deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $14.4K in 24h volume, and $93.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.6%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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$137.1K
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Spread
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