politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244K
Liquidity
$618.8K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Xi Jinping out before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $26.8K in 24h volume, and $168.5K in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$26.8K
Liquidity
$168.5K
This market asks whether Xi Jinping will be out of power before the end of 2026. It is worth watching because Xi is not just a national leader but the top official in China’s Communist Party, so any removal, resignation, detention, or forced pause in office would be a major political event.
The question is narrowly defined around Xi Jinping’s role as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the post that sits at the center of China’s political system. The market resolves “Yes” if he is removed from that office for any period between July 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, including if he resigns, is dismissed, is detained, is disqualified, or otherwise cannot perform the role; otherwise it resolves “No.” The primary source of truth is a consensus of credible reporting, so the key issue is whether there is reliable public evidence of a loss of that position within the stated window.
This market is centered on an event that is usually opaque and politically sensitive: leadership changes inside the Chinese Communist Party are often announced through official channels, but sudden removals can also emerge through indirect or disputed signals. Readers may care because Xi’s position affects China’s domestic direction, foreign policy, and continuity at the top of one of the world’s most important governments. The disagreement being priced is whether there will be any verified break in his hold on the General Secretary role before the deadline.
Price can move quickly if there is a formal resignation, an official personnel announcement, or credible reporting that Xi has been dismissed, detained, or otherwise prevented from carrying out his duties. Clear signs from Communist Party state media, major government personnel notices, or consistent reporting from multiple credible outlets would matter more than rumors or isolated claims. Because the market allows resolution on being “removed from power for any length of time,” even a temporary loss of the office would be enough if it is credibly established.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244K
Liquidity
$618.8K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main thing to verify is the exact rule for what counts as being “removed from power” and whether the evidence rises to the level of consensus credible reporting. Since the deadline runs through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, late-year developments still count, and the market is not about succession after that point unless the removal happens in time. Readers should also watch for ambiguity around temporary absences, health rumors, and unofficial commentary, because those would not necessarily meet the resolution standard without solid reporting.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Xi Jinping out before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $26.8K in 24h volume, and $168.5K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
7%
No
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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