politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Xi Jinping out by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $9.7K in 24h volume, and $46.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$9.7K
Liquidity
$46.2K
This market asks whether Xi Jinping will be out of power at any point before June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because Xi is both China’s top Communist Party leader and the country’s most important political figure, so even a brief removal would be a major political event.
The title refers to Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, and the market resolves "Yes" if he is removed from that role for any length of time between the market’s creation and June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The rules say removal can include resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any other loss of the position or inability to carry out the duties of General Secretary. The deadline matters because the market is not asking whether he is out by a particular date in a vague sense; it is tied to a specific cutoff and the resolution depends on what is credibly reported by that time.
There is uncertainty here because China’s leadership transitions are usually tightly controlled, and public information about internal Party power struggles can be limited or delayed. Readers care because Xi’s status affects Chinese domestic politics, foreign policy, and the broader stability of the current political order. The market is pricing a disagreement over whether any removal, forced or voluntary, could happen within this window versus Xi remaining in place through the deadline.
The biggest price moves would come from credible public reporting that Xi has resigned, been sidelined, or otherwise lost the General Secretary role, as the rules define that outcome broadly. Official Communist Party announcements, major state media signals, or widely reported confirmation from multiple credible outlets would matter most under the stated resolution standard. On the other side, continued appearances at major Party or state events, leadership meeting coverage, or clear signs that he remains in charge would support the "No" outcome and make a removal less plausible before the cutoff.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should check whether any report clearly says Xi has ceased to serve as General Secretary, not just that he missed an event or faced speculation. The key source of truth is the market’s stated standard: a consensus of credible reporting, so isolated rumors or unverified social media claims should not be treated as decisive. The deadline is June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the main ambiguity risk is whether a report describes a temporary absence, a health issue, or a political reshuffle without clearly saying he lost the office.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Xi Jinping out by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $9.7K in 24h volume, and $46.2K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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