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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$826.1K
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $38 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$38
Liquidity
$1.3K
This market asks whether the Bank of England will cut Bank Rate by 50 basis points or more at its July 2026 meeting. It is worth watching because the size of the move, not just the direction, can signal how aggressively the Monetary Policy Committee thinks it needs to respond to inflation, growth, and financial conditions.
The event is the Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026. Resolution depends on the official Bank of England statement or release showing the change in Bank Rate versus the level before the meeting, with the upper bound used if the policy rate is expressed as a range. A “Yes” result requires a cut of at least 50 basis points; smaller cuts, no change, or any increase would not qualify.
The uncertainty is not just whether rates move, but whether the Bank opts for a standard-sized adjustment or an unusually large one. Because the Bank Rate is a central policy tool for the UK economy, readers may care about what the decision says about inflation progress, the outlook for borrowing costs, and how policymakers are balancing growth risks against price stability. The market is effectively pricing disagreement over whether conditions will justify a half-point or larger reduction by that date.
The biggest price moves will come from official signals that change expectations for the July meeting, especially the Bank’s own guidance in speeches, minutes, or prior policy statements. Inflation releases, wage data, GDP figures, and broader financial stress can all matter if they change the perceived need for a larger cut. The market may also react sharply if the Bank of England calendar or meeting materials make clear that the committee is leaning toward a more aggressive easing step than expected.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$826.1K
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the Bank of England’s official July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee announcement, not commentary elsewhere. Readers should check the exact wording of the rate decision, the size of any change in basis points, and whether the policy rate is shown as a single rate or a band with an upper bound that controls resolution. The main ambiguity to watch for is rounding: if the move is not one of the displayed options, the market rules specify how the basis-point change is rounded, so the final statement needs to be read against those instructions carefully.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $38 in 24h volume, and $1.3K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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