
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 21%, $4.2K in 24h volume, and $5K in liquidity.
Probability
21%
24h Volume
$4.2K
Liquidity
$5K
This market asks whether the CME Gold futures contract’s official settlement price will land between $3,800 and $4,200 at the end of June 2026. Because it uses CME’s published settlement for the active month contract, the result depends on the exchange’s own month-end reference price rather than intraday trading levels. Gold is a closely watched commodity, so this range captures whether prices finish the month at an elevated but still bounded level.
The event is tied to CME Group’s Gold futures contract, ticker GC, and resolves from the official settlement price for the Active Month on the final trading day of June 2026. The Active Month is the nearest eligible delivery-cycle month that is not the spot month, and the market rules say the relevant contract can change automatically as CME rolls to the next eligible month. If the official settlement falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher range bracket wins; for this market, that means the June settlement must be within the stated $3,800-$4,200 band to resolve Yes.
The uncertainty here is about where gold will close in CME’s official month-end accounting, not where it trades during the day. Gold can move on central bank policy expectations, inflation data, U.S. dollar strength, and broader risk sentiment, so traders may disagree on whether June’s settlement will stay inside this high-price range. The market is essentially pricing the chance that gold ends June 2026 elevated enough to fit that bracket, but not so high or low that it falls outside it.
The most important price moves will come from changes in gold futures themselves, especially sustained moves that affect the CME settlement on the active contract’s final June session. Around a month-end like this, official settlement methodology matters more than a single print, so a strong late-day move, a contract roll, or a shortened trading session could all change the outcome. Because the resolution uses only CME’s published settlement, anything that alters the official close for the active month is more relevant than headlines about intraday highs or lows.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 21% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the final trading day for June 2026, the CME-listed Active Month at that time, and the official settlement price that CME publishes for that session. The rules are explicit that only the exchange’s official settlement counts, and if the last trading day is shortened or no settlement is published for that session, the market falls back to the most recent published June settlement for the Active Month. The main ambiguity to watch is the contract roll: make sure the referenced Active Month is the one CME designates on the day the market resolves, since intraday prices and the wrong contract month do not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 21%, $4.2K in 24h volume, and $5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
21%
No
79.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 21%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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