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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ledger IPO before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $510.9K in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$510.9K
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market is about whether Ledger will complete an initial public offering by the end of 2026. Ledger is best known as a crypto hardware wallet company, so an IPO would be a major step from private-company status to public trading and would likely attract attention from both crypto and equity investors.
The question here is simple: will Ledger sell shares to the public on a recognized stock exchange by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Under the market rules, a completed IPO by that deadline resolves to Yes, while an acquisition, merger, or disappearance of the company before then resolves to No. The page points to official company announcements or credible news as the resolution basis, with a consensus of credible reporting used to settle the outcome.
Ledger has long been discussed as a candidate for a future public listing, but a public offering depends on timing, market conditions, and the company’s own financing plans. That leaves room for disagreement over whether the company will choose to go public by the deadline, especially in a market where private firms can stay private longer or pursue other strategic options first.
The price can move if Ledger makes any direct statement about an IPO, files public listing paperwork, or hires advisers for a listing process. It can also move if reports suggest a merger, acquisition, or other transaction that would make an IPO less likely, because the rules say those outcomes would resolve the market to No. Broader shifts in the crypto and equity markets may matter too, but only insofar as they change the likelihood of a real listing by the end-2026 cutoff.
The current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe key items to watch are formal company disclosures, exchange filings, and credible reporting that specifically indicate a completed public listing before the deadline. Readers should verify the exact timing, since the market resolves only if the IPO is completed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, not merely announced or rumored. Because the source of truth is a consensus of credible reporting, the most important ambiguity to check is whether any reported transaction is truly an IPO on a recognized exchange rather than a different corporate event.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Ledger IPO before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $510.9K in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
12.5%
No
87.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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