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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $6.8K in 24h volume, and $85.6K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$6.8K
Liquidity
$85.6K
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will no longer be serving as President of Russia at any point before June 30, 2026. Because it is tied to a specific office and a hard deadline, the key issue is not long-term political outlook but whether there is any official resignation, removal, detention, or other effective loss of office within the market window.
The event is about Putin’s status as president of Russia, with resolution based on whether he ceases to hold that position for any period between market creation and June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. The rules are broad: an announced resignation or removal counts immediately, even if the change takes effect later, and a detention or other permanent prevention from carrying out the duties of the office can also qualify. Resolution is intended to rely first on official information from Putin or the Russian government, though a clear consensus of credible reporting may be used if official confirmation is unavailable.
There is uncertainty because high-level political leadership in Russia can change through formal resignation, dismissal, incapacitation, detention, or other abrupt shifts that are difficult to anticipate. Putin has been Russia’s central political figure for years, so any departure from the presidency would be a major constitutional and geopolitical event, which is why this exact office-and-date question draws attention. The disagreement in the market is essentially about whether anything extraordinary will happen before the deadline, not about normal election timing or routine political speculation.
Price would move most on an official resignation announcement, a government statement that he has been removed from office, or any credible report suggesting he can no longer perform presidential duties. Constitutional or succession-related developments in Russia would also matter if they imply that the office has ended before the deadline. By contrast, ordinary political rhetoric, speculation about future elections, or unrelated diplomatic events should matter less unless they connect directly to Putin’s status as president.
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the resolution wording carefully: the market resolves on whether Putin ceases to be president at any time before the stated end date, and an announced resignation or removal counts even if the effective date is later. The source of truth is official information from Putin and the Russian government, with credible reporting as a backup if the official record is unclear. The main ambiguity to watch is whether any event amounts to merely political pressure or instead a real loss of office, since only the latter should satisfy the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $6.8K in 24h volume, and $85.6K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
1.1%
No
99%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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