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⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $16.6 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
32%
24h Volume
$16.6
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether the S&P 500 index, tracked here as SPX/^GSPC, will print an intraday high of 8,200 at any point before December 2026 ends. Because the outcome depends on a single 1-minute candle touching that level, it is a very specific threshold question rather than a forecast about where the index finishes the month. The market is most relevant to readers watching how far U.S. equity prices can run over the next several months.
The title focuses on the S&P 500 (SPX), the main U.S. stock index that reflects the largest publicly traded companies in the American market. For this market to resolve “Yes,” Yahoo Finance’s 1-minute data for ^GSPC must show a final High price of at least 8,200 at any point between market creation and the close of trading on the final day of December 2026. If that level is never reached during regular trading hours, the market resolves “No.”
The uncertainty is straightforward: 8,200 is a large move from current index levels, but equity markets can travel a long way over time, especially around shifts in growth, inflation, earnings, and central bank policy. The question is not whether the S&P 500 ends December 2026 at 8,200, but whether it ever briefly trades there on an intraday basis. Traders and readers are effectively weighing how plausible an extended rally and higher valuation regime would be before year-end 2026.
Movements in the S&P 500 itself will matter most, especially sustained rallies driven by stronger earnings, easier financial conditions, or expectations of lower interest rates. Big swings in large-cap technology stocks can also matter because they carry heavy index weight and can push the benchmark to new highs quickly. On the market-page side, the contract can react to whether traders think 8,200 is a realistic intraday print by the deadline, which is reflected in the balance between the Yes and No prices and how wide the bid-ask spread is.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 32% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is Yahoo Finance’s 1-minute chart for ^GSPC, and only regular trading hours count under the rules. Readers should check the exact high price in each 1-minute candle, the timestamp of any move near 8,200, and whether the exchange is officially open when that price appears. The final resolution date is the end of December 2026, so the market can only turn on a qualifying print that occurs before the close on that last trading day; after-hours moves and holiday closures do not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?. The market currently shows a live probability of 32%, $16.6 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
32%
No
68%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 32%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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