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😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
9%
-5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$777.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $7.1K in 24h volume, and $40K in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$7.1K
Liquidity
$40K
This market asks whether the United States, under the Trump administration, will formally recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by the end of 2026. It is a narrow diplomatic question, not a general measure of support for Pahlavi or opposition to Iran’s current government, so the wording of any official statement will matter a great deal.
The key issue is whether the U.S. government will make a direct, unqualified announcement that it officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the “leader of Iran.” The market description says that could include titles such as head of state, prime minister, or another role giving him primary executive authority in Iran, and it resolves by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 ET. If no such statement is made by then, the market resolves to No.
Reza Pahlavi is a prominent Iranian opposition figure and the son of Iran’s last shah, so a U.S. recognition statement would carry major symbolic and diplomatic significance. The uncertainty here is not just whether the administration might be sympathetic, but whether it would go as far as an explicit, official recognition of him in a governing role, which would be a much stronger and more unusual step. The market is mainly pricing disagreement over whether any future U.S. statement will cross that line before the deadline.
Prices would move most on official U.S. statements from the Trump administration, especially any wording that mentions Pahlavi by name and uses recognition language without qualifiers. Clear cabinet-level, White House, or presidential remarks could matter if they appear to confer a formal governing status on him, while supportive comments that stop short of recognition would likely not count under the rules. Changes in the broader U.S.-Iran policy environment could also affect expectations, but only a direct and unambiguous recognition statement should determine the outcome.
Related markets
-5%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$777.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is the exact wording of any U.S. statement, because the rules exclude conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied language. Readers should watch official White House or other U.S. government announcements first, then confirm whether credible reporting agrees that the statement was a direct recognition of Pahlavi as leader of Iran. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 ET, and the main ambiguity risk is a statement that sounds supportive but does not clearly grant him a qualifying leadership role.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $7.1K in 24h volume, and $40K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
6%
No
94%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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