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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.4K
Liquidity
$212.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $16K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$16K
Liquidity
$8.4K
This market is about whether Anthropic will still be private through the end of 2027. Anthropic is a closely watched AI company, so the timing of any public listing matters because it would be a major milestone for the company and for the broader AI sector.
The event question is simple: will Anthropic avoid going public by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET? If there is no IPO by that deadline, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027." If Anthropic does IPO before then, resolution depends on the company’s market capitalization on its first day of trading, measured from the official closing price on the primary exchange’s listing page.
Anthropic has been a high-profile private AI company, and markets like this reflect uncertainty over whether and when it will choose to list publicly. The disagreement is not just about timing; it is also about how long the company may prefer to stay private, and whether public-market conditions will be attractive enough before the deadline. That is why the page is tracking both the binary IPO timing question and, if an IPO happens, the first-day valuation outcome.
The biggest price moves will usually come from concrete IPO-related signals: an official filing, public statements from Anthropic or its backers, reports of a listing plan, or the absence of any such step as the deadline gets closer. Because the contract resolves on whether an IPO happens by the cutoff, any announcement that clearly confirms a public offering before December 31, 2027 would matter a lot, while signs that Anthropic intends to remain private would support the opposite side. If an IPO does occur, the first-day trading price and share count become important because the market-cap threshold in the description determines the final bracket.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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View marketReaders should check the exact wording of the market rules, since the title mentions "not IPO by December 31, 2027" but the description also lays out how the market resolves if an IPO does happen. The source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page for Anthropic’s first trading day; if that page does not show the needed figure, another reliable source may be used. The deadline is December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, and the main ambiguity to watch is whether any trading halt, shortened session, or delayed official close changes which day counts as the first day of trading for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $16K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
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Yes
3.3%
No
96.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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