
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $575.9 in 24h volume, and $18.5K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$575.9
Liquidity
$18.5K
This market asks whether Anthropic will still be private through December 31, 2027, rather than completing an IPO before that deadline. Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, so any move toward a public listing would draw attention well beyond the usual equity markets.
The page is tied to Anthropic’s first day of public trading, if that ever happens, and the market resolves from the company’s market capitalization at the closing price on that debut day. If Anthropic has not held an IPO by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.” In plain terms, the question is not about how large Anthropic might be after listing, but whether a listing happens before the deadline at all.
Anthropic is a major private AI company, so its public-market timeline matters to investors, employees, competitors, and anyone tracking the broader AI sector. There is real uncertainty around when, or whether, it will choose to go public, since that depends on business conditions, market appetite, and the company’s own timing. This market is therefore pricing a simple disagreement: will Anthropic remain private through the end of 2027, or will it have an IPO before then?
The biggest price-moving events are official signs that Anthropic is preparing for a public offering, such as filing registration documents, selecting underwriters, or setting a listing timetable. Clearer signals that the company is staying private, delaying plans, or focusing on private financing could push the market the other way. Because the resolution is deadline-based, the key question is not valuation chatter alone, but whether a first trading day actually occurs before December 31, 2027.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is whether Anthropic has an actual IPO and first day of trading before the cutoff date, using the primary exchange’s official listing page as the main source. If a closing price is missing because of a trading interruption or abbreviated session, the rules say the official closing price from the next day with a published close can count as the first trading day for this market. Readers should also watch the exact deadline, since anything after 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 does not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $575.9 in 24h volume, and $18.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
4%
No
96.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+4%
24h Vol
$53.4K
Liquidity
$38K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
-8%
24h Vol
$50.4K
Liquidity
$95.1K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market
+0.2%
24h Vol
$25.9K
Liquidity
$143.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.5%
24h Vol
$17.5K
Liquidity
$34.7K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1.8%
24h Vol
$22.7K
Liquidity
$30.2K
Spread
0%
Live
View market