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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.2K
Liquidity
$245.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $20.2K in liquidity.
Probability
43%
24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$20.2K
This market asks whether Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, will debut on public markets at a valuation of $1.8 trillion or more on its first trading day before the end of 2027. It is a closely watched threshold because an IPO at that size would place Anthropic among the most highly valued companies to ever list. The deadline matters too: if no IPO happens by December 31, 2027, the outcome is simply No IPO by that date.
Resolution depends on Anthropic’s market capitalization at the close of its first day of trading, not on rumors, private fundraising rounds, or aftermarket moves. The market cap is defined here as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the official closing share price on the first trading day, using the primary exchange’s listing page or another reliable source if needed. If the first session is interrupted, the market uses the official closing price for the abbreviated session; if no official close is published that day, it shifts to the next trading day with an official close.
Anthropic is a major private AI company, so any IPO would attract attention from investors who track the scale and pricing of leading AI firms. The key uncertainty is whether public-market demand, share count, and IPO pricing could combine to produce a first-day valuation at or above the very high $1.8 trillion bar. The market is effectively pricing disagreement about both the timing of an IPO and whether the company could debut at an exceptionally large market value on day one.
The biggest price moves would come from concrete IPO milestones: a formal filing, a proposed share count, an indicated price range, or a confirmed listing date. Changes to the expected size of the offering matter because market cap depends on both the closing price and the number of shares outstanding, so revisions in float or fully diluted share count can change how plausible the threshold looks. If there is no IPO by the deadline, or if the company lists at a valuation far below the threshold, that would push the market toward No.
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24h Vol
$479.2K
Liquidity
$245.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 43% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for two things: whether Anthropic actually completes an IPO before December 31, 2027, and what the official first-day closing price is on the primary exchange. The source of truth is the exchange’s official listing page, with fallback to another reliable source only if the figure is not displayed. Because the market resolves on the first official close, not intraday highs or private estimates, the main ambiguity to check is the final share count used for the listing and whether the first session is normal, shortened, or delayed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $20.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 43%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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