
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $8.6K in 24h volume, and $47.8K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$8.6K
Liquidity
$47.8K
This market is about whether Anthropic would debut on public markets at a closing valuation between $200 billion and $300 billion on its first trading day. The deadline matters because if Anthropic has not completed an IPO by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to the separate “No IPO” outcome instead of a valuation bracket.
The question is not simply whether Anthropic goes public, but what its market capitalization is at the official closing price on IPO day. Anthropic is the AI company behind Claude, and the market uses the first day of trading on the primary exchange as the reference point, with market cap defined as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price. If the value lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, this market resolves to the higher bracket, and if no IPO happens by June 30, 2026, it resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”
Anthropic is a closely watched private AI company, so any IPO would attract attention not just for whether it lists, but for how the public market prices its growth story. The disagreement here is over whether its debut valuation would clear the $200 billion mark yet remain below $300 billion, which is a narrow band for a high-profile first-day listing. The market is pricing uncertainty around the timing of an IPO, the size of the float, and the closing price investors assign on day one.
The biggest price-moving developments would be an official IPO filing, updated offering terms, or a confirmed listing date, since those would clarify whether Anthropic is on track to go public before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. Any disclosed share count, valuation range, or first-day trading behavior would also matter because this market depends on the closing market cap, not just an opening headline valuation. If trading is interrupted on debut day, the rules say the official closing price of the abbreviated session or the next day’s official close can determine the result, so exchange notices and the listing page become especially important.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$458.3K
Liquidity
$207.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for Anthropic’s IPO registration documents, the primary exchange’s official listing page, and the final closing price on the first trading day, because those are the sources the market says will control resolution. The key ambiguity to check is whether Anthropic actually lists by June 30, 2026, and if it does, whether the official market cap at the close falls in the $200 billion to $300 billion bracket or lands outside it. If the company lists on a shortened or disrupted session, the exact rule for the official close matters, since that can change which trading day counts for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $8.6K in 24h volume, and $47.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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