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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 40%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Probability
40%
24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$1.8K
This market asks whether Anthropic, the AI company, will reach a very large private valuation of $1.1 trillion before the end of June 30, 2026. It is a high bar, especially because the market uses Nasdaq Private Market’s published valuation data as the key reference point. Because the threshold is so elevated, small changes in the company’s private-markets pricing or any later public listing terms could matter a lot.
The question is whether Anthropic’s private market valuation, measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, will hit or exceed $1.1 trillion on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026. If NPM publishes a qualifying valuation at or above that level, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No. The rules also say that if Anthropic goes public through an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, the official offer price and subsequent public market capitalization can also be used in the resolution.
Anthropic is one of the best-known private AI companies, so its valuation is watched as a signal of how investors are pricing frontier-model companies. The uncertainty here is not just whether the company keeps growing, but whether private-market pricing can climb all the way to a $1.1 trillion level within the deadline. The market is pricing disagreement over how quickly a private company can approach that scale, and whether any listing event would validate or reset the valuation.
The biggest price-moving events are new NPM valuation prints for Anthropic, since the market resolves off those published figures. A financing round, a late-stage tender price, or a change in official private-market pricing could push the market toward Yes if it approaches the threshold. An IPO or direct listing would also be important because the rules allow the official listing price and post-listing public capitalization to count in the outcome.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 40% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the exact NPM publication dates and whether there are any gaps in trading-day coverage, since the rules allow the market to stay open longer if data has not yet been published for the full period. The source of truth is Nasdaq Private Market’s reported NPM Price, plus any IPO or direct-listing terms if that happens before June 30, 2026. It is also worth checking the cutoff dates carefully: the relevant period runs through June 30, and the market may rely on data available by early July if NPM publication lags.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 40%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
40%
No
60%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 40%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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