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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 96%, $19.3K in 24h volume, and $55.1K in liquidity.
Probability
96%
24h Volume
$19.3K
Liquidity
$55.1K
This market asks a very specific question about Armenia’s June 7, 2026 parliamentary election: will Civil Contract finish with the most seats in the National Assembly? Because the winner is determined by seat totals rather than vote share alone, the outcome depends on how Armenia’s proportional election results translate into parliamentary mandates.
Civil Contract is the party led by Armenia’s political leadership in the current parliamentary era, and this market is about whether it emerges from the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election with the largest seat count. The election is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market will resolve to the party or coalition that wins the most seats; if the election is delayed past December 31, 2026, it resolves to Other. If there is a tie on seats, the rules fall back first to valid votes, then to alphabetical order of the listed abbreviation.
This race is not just about who is popular nationally, but about how vote totals, district or list rules, and coalition behavior can affect who actually controls parliament. Civil Contract may be the front-runner, but Armenian elections can still produce uncertainty around turnout, opposition coordination, and whether one party can keep a seat plurality. The market is pricing a straightforward question with real room for disagreement: whether Civil Contract will hold onto the top seat count when the official results are final.
Any official change in the election timetable, campaign rules, or party lineup could affect expectations, especially if the vote is delayed or if Civil Contract faces a major alliance challenge. Polling trends, party endorsements, candidate lists, and reports about opposition fragmentation or consolidation are the kinds of developments that can shift perceptions of who will win the most seats. As election day approaches, exit polls, preliminary counts, and seat projections from credible sources can also move the market if they suggest a tighter race than expected.
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 96% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key date is June 7, 2026, but the market’s fallback deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if the election does not happen on schedule. Resolution will be based on the number of seats won in the Armenian National Assembly, with the Armenian Central Election Commission as the ultimate source if there is any ambiguity. Readers should watch the official CEC results page, because the market’s wording cares about seat totals first and only uses vote totals and alphabetical order as tie-breakers.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 96%, $19.3K in 24h volume, and $55.1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
96.5%
No
3.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 96%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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