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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$477.3K
Liquidity
$245.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $10.3K in 24h volume, and $20.9K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$10.3K
Liquidity
$20.9K
This market asks whether CME crude oil futures will print a daily high above $147.27 at any point before the end of June 30, using the exchange’s published front-month contract data. It is worth watching because crude oil can move sharply on supply disruptions, geopolitics, OPEC policy, and shifts in demand expectations, and the threshold is tied to a specific historic price level.
The event is about the daily high for the active month, or front month, of CME Group’s Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) futures. The market resolves Yes only if CME publishes a daily high above $147.27 on any trading day after the market was created and on or before the final trading day by June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. The rules also specify that the active month can roll to the next contract two business days before the spot month expires, so the exact contract being referenced can change over time.
Crude oil has a long history of large price swings, and $147.27 is a notable benchmark because it sets a very high bar for a new all-time high in the front-month contract. Readers may care because the outcome depends on a precise exchange-published threshold, not on an average price or an intraday rumor, which creates a clear yes-or-no question with a defined deadline. The market is effectively pricing disagreement over whether oil can reach an extreme level again before the June 30 cutoff.
The market price can move if front-month crude oil rallies sharply toward the threshold, especially on news that affects physical supply, shipping lanes, refinery outages, or production policy from major exporters. A sustained move in energy futures, not just a one-day spike, would matter because the rule looks for a published daily high above $147.27 on the CME site. Contract rolls in the active month can also matter, since the market follows the front-month contract as it changes over time.
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24h Vol
$477.3K
Liquidity
$245.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the CME Group crude oil quotes page and, specifically, the published daily High for the active month of CL futures. Readers should verify the exact contract month currently designated as active, the final trading day before June 30, and whether CME has updated the daily high above $147.27 on any trading day within the window. The main ambiguity risk is not the headline price move itself, but whether the official CME data has been finalized for the relevant trading day and whether the contract roll timing changes which month counts as active.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $10.3K in 24h volume, and $20.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
3.3%
No
96.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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