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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $161.9 in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$161.9
Liquidity
$5.9K
This market asks whether Databricks will debut on public markets at a closing valuation between $125 billion and $150 billion on its first trading day. That range matters because an IPO’s first-day close is often the first widely watched market check on how investors value a newly public company. The key dates are Databricks’ IPO day and the hard fallback deadline of June 30, 2026: if the company has not gone public by then, the market resolves to no IPO by that date.
The question is narrowly defined around Databricks’ market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading. Market cap here means the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price, and the outcome is determined by whether that value lands between $125 billion and $150 billion. If the figure sits exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher range wins. If Databricks does not complete an IPO by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to the no-IPO outcome instead.
Databricks is a well-known software company, so its public-market debut would be closely watched as a test of investor appetite for large enterprise software listings. The uncertainty is not just whether it will list, but what price the market will assign once trading begins and the first closing price is known. Readers may care because IPO pricing can differ from the company’s private-market reputation, and first-day trading often reflects demand, supply, and sentiment all at once. This market is pricing that exact disagreement: whether Databricks’ first-day close will land in the specified $125 billion to $150 billion band or outside it.
The biggest movers are the IPO itself and the first official closing price on Databricks’ debut day, since that is the value this market uses. Any change in the expected share count, initial offer price, trading-day close, or a delayed listing would directly affect whether the company finishes inside the target valuation range. The market can also shift if the listing is postponed or if there is no IPO before the June 30, 2026 deadline, because that would force the no-IPO outcome. If the first trading session is shortened or interrupted, the rules say the official closing price of the abbreviated session, or the next day’s official close if needed, will determine resolution.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the main thing to verify is whether Databricks actually begins trading and, if so, what the primary exchange lists as the official closing price on the first day. The market explicitly uses the primary exchange’s official listing page first, and only falls back to another reliable source if that figure is not displayed. Watch the IPO timing carefully, because the June 30, 2026 deadline is a hard cutoff for the no-IPO outcome. Also note the special rule for disrupted trading sessions: if the normal session is interrupted or shortened, the official close from that abbreviated session counts; if no official close is published, the next trading day with an official closing price becomes the effective first day for this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $161.9 in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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