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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $161.9 in 24h volume, and $4.8K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$161.9
Liquidity
$4.8K
This market asks a very specific question about Databricks’ first day as a public company: will its market value at the closing price land between $200 billion and $250 billion? Because the answer depends on the IPO price, the number of shares outstanding, and the official closing price on day one, it can only be settled once Databricks actually starts trading or the deadline passes without an IPO.
The event in question is Databricks’ IPO day closing market cap, measured at the end of its first trading session on a primary exchange. Market capitalization here means the company’s outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price, and the market resolves to the listed range that contains that figure at close. If Databricks does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the separate “No IPO by June 30, 2026” outcome.
Databricks is a large private software company, so its eventual public valuation is not fixed in advance and can differ materially from pre-IPO expectations. Investors and observers may disagree about how the IPO will be priced, how many shares will be outstanding, and whether first-day trading will push the closing value into the $200 billion to $250 billion band or outside it. The market is essentially pricing that uncertainty around the company’s debut valuation.
Any concrete IPO filing, amended registration statement, pricing announcement, or listing notice would materially change expectations, especially if it reveals the share count or implied valuation. On the first trading day, the official closing price matters most because the market cap is based on the close, not the intraday high or low. If the IPO is delayed, withdrawn, or never happens before the deadline, the “No IPO by June 30, 2026” outcome becomes the relevant resolution path.
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24h Vol
$479.4K
Liquidity
$247.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the primary exchange’s official listing page, since the rules say resolution will be based there first, with another reliable source only if the figure is not displayed. The key details to verify are whether Databricks has actually listed, what the official first-day closing price is, and whether any abbreviated session or trading interruption changes which day counts as the first trading day. If the market cap lands exactly on a bracket boundary, this market resolves to the higher range, so the precise closing calculation matters.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $161.9 in 24h volume, and $4.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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