
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 99%, $3.3K in 24h volume, and $10.2K in liquidity.
Probability
99%
24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$10.2K
This market is about whether Databricks will still be private through June 30, 2026, or whether it will have completed an initial public offering by then. Because Databricks is a closely watched enterprise software company and IPO timing can shift with market conditions, the question is less about day-to-day news and more about whether a public listing happens before the deadline.
The title asks, in plain English, whether Databricks will not IPO by June 30, 2026. The resolution rules add an extra layer: if Databricks does go public, the market is ultimately tied to the company’s market capitalization on the closing price of its first day of trading, with the primary exchange’s official listing page as the main source. If no IPO has occurred by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026, the market resolves to the no-IPO outcome.
Databricks is a major private company, so there is real uncertainty around both timing and structure of any public debut. Investors and observers may disagree on whether the company will list before the deadline, and that uncertainty is what this market is pricing. The deadline matters because the outcome changes completely depending on whether an IPO happens at all before the cutoff.
This market can move on concrete IPO-related signals such as a company filing a registration statement, choosing underwriters, setting a pricing range, or announcing a roadshow and expected listing date. A formal delay, a withdrawal of filing plans, or a statement that the company remains private would push attention toward the no-IPO outcome. If Databricks prices and begins trading, the exact first-day listing mechanics and the exchange’s official close become important because the market’s resolution depends on the first official closing price.
The current market price implies roughly a 99% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should watch for an official IPO filing, exchange listing announcement, and any confirmed first trading date, since those are the clearest signs that the deadline may be met. The resolution source is the primary exchange’s official listing page, and if that page does not show the relevant figure, another reliable source may be used. One ambiguity to keep in mind is the market’s fallback rule for interrupted trading: if Databricks has a shortened first session and no official close is published, the next day with an official close is treated as the first trading day for resolution purposes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 99%, $3.3K in 24h volume, and $10.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
99%
No
1.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 99%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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