economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 23, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
43%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks a very specific question about Donald Trump’s behavior on June 23, 2026: will there be qualifying video showing him dancing at any point that day, in Eastern Time? The wording matters because the market does not hinge on whether he appears at an event, moves casually, or posts something later — it only resolves on footage that meets the definition of dancing.
The event in question is a single calendar day, June 23, 2026, and the outcome is binary: Yes if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET, No if he does not. The market’s rules define dancing as deliberate, rhythmic body movement to music or a beat, including swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions; casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental movement does not count. It also says the resolution must be based on video footage, while AI-generated clips, deepfakes, altered footage, or videos posted later that were filmed outside the day’s window will not qualify.
This market is about a highly specific, observable public moment involving a former U.S. president, and the uncertainty comes from whether any qualifying footage will appear on that date. Because the rules are unusually strict about what counts as dancing and what counts as valid evidence, a lot of ordinary movement would not settle the question one way or the other. Readers may care because the answer depends less on political outcome than on a precise, visual definition applied to a prominent public figure.
The biggest price moves would come from credible video appearing on June 23, 2026 that clearly shows Donald Trump making rhythmic, deliberate dance-like movements under the market’s definition. The market would also react if an event, rally, celebration, or informal appearance makes dancing more or less plausible, especially if it is accompanied by music or a visible beat. By contrast, clips that are ambiguous, out of date, edited, or missing the required time stamp are unlikely to resolve the question and may not move confidence much.
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 43% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the key thing to verify is whether any video footage clearly places the movement within June 23, 2026 in Eastern Time and shows conduct that fits the market’s definition of dancing. Because the rules exclude AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered footage, and social-media videos filmed outside the time window, the source and timing of the video matter as much as the clip itself. The resolution deadline is tied to the full day ending at 11:59 PM ET on June 23, 2026, with the market set to resolve later on July 1, 2026 if evidence is available or absent.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 23, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 43%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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